Mondoni et al. sow seeds of eight foreland species at 2500 m altitude and at a site 400 m lower to simulate a +2·7 °C increase in mean annual temperature, and find that at the warmer site there is a shift from summer to autumn emergence in two species and a significant increase of summer emergence in all species except two. They conclude that warming will influence recruitment primarily via the extension of the snow-free period in spring, increasing seedling emergence and survival. The changes in recruitment success that are observed imply that range shifts or changes in abundance are possible in a future warmer climate.
This article appears in the special issue Plants and Climate Change.