#IBC18 Friday Morning

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Tweets from the Keynote symposia for IBC18

Bumper session of thinkers coming up: Frank Busby, Mark Burgman and Hugh Possingham. #ibc18
TimEntwisle
July 28, 2011
I’ll start with Plant diversity and ecology/invasion ecology.
Keynotes on plant diversity begin. Frank Bisby on tools for studying the global biota. #ibc18
IBC11
July 28, 2011
Bisby: Biodiversity World – examples of species environmental envelopes, predictive modelling, climate change predictions. #ibc18
Jim_Croft
July 28, 2011
Bisby. Biodiversity World sounds like an Atlas of Living Australia #alau for the world. workflows, data standards #ibc18 #everybodysdoingit
Jim_Croft
July 28, 2011
Busby: Catalogue of Life proudly gives you very little information about ever species. #keepingitsimple #ibc18
TimEntwisle
July 28, 2011
Bisby, the Catalogue of Life. #col http://www.catalogueoflife.org list of species in a hierarchy. #namesinatree #ibc18
Jim_Croft
July 28, 2011
Bisby: Algaebase! Algae not a natural group, of course (this is why they are fun!). #ibc18 #algaerule
TimEntwisle
July 28, 2011
The algae: a state of mind. RT @TimEntwisle: Bisby: Algaebase! Algae not a natural group, of course (this is why they are fun!). #ibc18
Jim_Croft
July 28, 2011
Aren;t the fungi the fun guys? RT @Jim_Croft: The algae: a state of mind. RT @TimEntwisle: Algae not a natural group ( are fun!). #ibc18
Pathh1
July 28, 2011
Algae are phycophun. RT @Pathh1: Aren;t the fungi the fun guys? RT @Jim_Croft: The algae: a state of mind. RT #ibc18
TimEntwisle
July 28, 2011
Bisby: Setting up a kind of ecosystem of databases. #ibc18 Just what we need, something else to conserve and worry about.
TimEntwisle
July 28, 2011
Bisby: Catalogue of Life an aggregate of 101 databases. Global species databases now augmented by ‘regional hubs’. #ibc18
Jim_Croft
July 28, 2011
Bisby: Catalogue of Life networks with data providers (huge page o’ logos). Gets complicated with different taxonomies e.g. algae. #ibc18
IBC11
July 28, 2011
Bisby: need these tools to have evidence-based science for conservation etc., rather than "seat of the pants" decisions. #ibc18
IBC11
July 28, 2011
Bisby. Contrasting ‘seat of the pants’ expert opinion with evidence-based decision-making. The role of BD informatics in the latter. # ibc18
Jim_Croft
July 28, 2011
Mark Burgman: We make mistakes and experts help us minimise dumb mistakes. #ibc18
TimEntwisle
July 28, 2011
Burgman: Experts return truth 30-40% of the time. That is, we think we know more than we know. #ibc18
TimEntwisle
July 28, 2011
Mark Burgman: intel systems for energing plant pests and diseases. Experts over-confident. (You’re not as smart as you think.) #ibc18
IBC11
July 28, 2011
Mark Burgman, dissecting the cult of the expert. tendency to overestimate quantity, quality, confidence. #ibc18
Jim_Croft
July 28, 2011
Burgman: Talks about 4-question format to get closer to truth: lowest value, highest value, best guess, confidence #ibc18 Do it now, he says
TimEntwisle
July 28, 2011
Burgman: developing a 4-step question process to improve performance of experts. Order of Qs is very important. #ibc18
Jim_Croft
July 28, 2011
Burgman: People with most publications, experience and assessing themselves highly are assessed highly by others… #ibc18
TimEntwisle
July 28, 2011
Burgman: There is no correlation between experience, quals etc. and performance on relevant, sensible test questions! #ibc18
TimEntwisle
July 28, 2011
Burgman: ask experts for highest value, lowest value, best guess and how confident they are. Delphi process. #ibc18
IBC11
July 28, 2011
Burgman: peer assessment of expertise and ability established in 60 seconds. #ibc18
Jim_Croft
July 28, 2011
"Experts a social necessity but little more." #ibc18 Mark Burgman always fun.
TimEntwisle
July 28, 2011
Burgman: no correlation between peer/self assessment and actual performance. none. at all. #ibc18
Jim_Croft
July 28, 2011
So an expert isn’t the ‘intelligence system’ of Bergman’s title RT @TimEntwisle: "Experts a social necessity but little more." #ibc18
Pathh1
July 28, 2011
Seems not, but ask a 25 year old. RT @Pathh1: So an expert isn’t the ‘intelligence system’ of Bergman’s title RT @TimEntwisle: #ibc18
TimEntwisle
July 28, 2011
Today there were tweets from the other session too. The role of modern biology in reducing pest and pathogen threats to global food security.
No external test of judgement, yet. Expose yourself to cross-examination & train to be estimators of unknowable facts about future. #ibc18
TimEntwisle
July 28, 2011
Burgman. extra discussion of a topic improves the accuracy of the final collective decision. #ibc18 #weneedtotalk
Jim_Croft
July 28, 2011
So he understands social media/wiki etc?RT @Jim_Croft: Burgman. discussion of topic improves accuracy of final decision. #ibc18
Pathh1
July 28, 2011
Tweets source of useful information. Shock announcement by Mark Burgman. #ibc18
TimEntwisle
July 28, 2011
Burgman: now onto biosecurity intelligence software. crawlz ur twitterz and ur facebookz for weedz! #ibc18
Jim_Croft
July 28, 2011
Burgman: ‘foresight techniques’ enhancing expert judgement and predictions. #ibc18
Jim_Croft
July 28, 2011
Now Hugh Possingham: Decision science tools for assisted colonisation (managed relocation). #ibc18
IBC11
July 28, 2011
Hugh Possingham: risk assessment for managed relocation. ‘assisted colonization’. depends extensively on expert opinion. #ibc18
Jim_Croft
July 28, 2011
Possingham: We have fragmented habitats and we might have to just pick up species and put them somewhere else, if they are to survive.#ibc18
TimEntwisle
July 28, 2011
Possingham: Assisted colonisation very contentious, govt etc. often don’t want to talk about it. #ibc18
IBC11
July 28, 2011
Possingham: Our parks and gardens, and neighbouring lands, are full of assisted colonisations… #ibc18
TimEntwisle
July 28, 2011
Possingham: using decision trees to assess viability of proposed translocations. #ibc18
IBC11
July 28, 2011
Possingham: decision-making tools. asks technical feasibility, confidence, risks, etc. most Qs binary, but IRL more nuanced. #ibc18
Jim_Croft
July 28, 2011
Possingham, rhetorically: "Where are you going to get all that data, Hugh?" … "Not my problem…" #ibc18
Jim_Croft
July 28, 2011
Possingham says we should ask experts, the guys Burgman says don’t tell you the truth. It’s all becoming much clearer. #ibc18
TimEntwisle
July 28, 2011
Possingham will get data from experts. Wait a minute… #ibc18
IBC11
July 28, 2011
Possingham: timing of relocation is also critical. #ibc18
IBC11
July 28, 2011
just as well we don’t do taxonomy and systematics this way. 😉 MT @TimEntwisle: Possingham says ask experts, Burgman says don’t. #ibc18
Jim_Croft
July 28, 2011
#ibc18 @TimEntwisle well, Burgman said old experts no better than young ones, so perhaps not so hopeless.
davidorlovich
July 28, 2011
He also said they were no worse. RT @davidorlovich #ibc18 @TimEntwisle well, Burgman said old experts no better than young ones…
IBC11
July 28, 2011
Symposium summary: Save biodiversity by creating a virtual laboratory of 25-year-old non-experts armed with a decision-making tree. #ibc18
TimEntwisle
July 28, 2011
That’s why UK/US banks failed: no knowledge of borrowers just a laptop & form RT @TimEntwisle Save biodiversity with decision tree #ibc18
Pathh1
July 28, 2011
Possingham showing made up expert lines on graphs. with squiggles for extra added credibility. #ibc18
Jim_Croft
July 28, 2011
Burgman: "Being 25 is as good as being 65". *audience applause* #ibc18
IBC11
July 28, 2011
Paul Birch: Finding durable potato late blight resistance. Current genetic resistances easily broken, and sprays (20/season) banned #ibc18
Pathh1
July 28, 2011
Birch: new aggressive Phytophtora genotype expanded prevalence 20x in last 5 years. Particularly aggressive on varietiy Stirling #ibc18
Pathh1
July 28, 2011
Birch: Avirulance and recognition by potato host of pathogen relates to two amino acids in the protein: K/I vs E/M #ibc18
Pathh1
July 28, 2011
RXLR effectors occur in repetitive transposon rich genome regions in Phytophthora. cf tweet on lots of value in repetitive DNA #ibc18
Pathh1
July 28, 2011
160 yrs breeding/no resistance. Now have stable silencing of AVR3a effector. Resistance gene can be modified for novel specificity #ibc18
Pathh1
July 28, 2011
Birch: Phytophthora needs RXLR effectors to cause disease, potato R proteins target RXLR & better ones possible. http://bit.ly/oiTKHb #ibc18
Pathh1
July 28, 2011
Robert Park http://bit.ly/pVuAyT Basically says you can’t talk about global food security without talking about wheat rust. #ibc18
Pathh1
July 28, 2011
Park: 5 wheat rust resistance genes cloned, 3 major wth NBS-LRR domain (like Musa http://bit.ly/ohNTxj). Minor genes give broader res #ibc18
Pathh1
July 28, 2011
Hah The old 1BL.1RS translocation (I worked on it in 80s) & Sr31 resistance to stem rust until race Ug99 emerged. Now tracking spread #ibc18
Pathh1
July 28, 2011
Nice modelling of intercontinental tracking of rust spread quoting Dave Hodson FAO #ibc18
Pathh1
July 28, 2011
Park fields trick questions for a professor: what are Latin names of the pathogens? what about minor QTLs approaches cf Arabidopsis?! #ibc18
Pathh1
July 28, 2011
Donald Gardiner http://bit.ly/qtgatQ More wheat diseases w. little genetic resistance eg crown rot/Fusarium. Big genome comparisons #ibc18
Pathh1
July 28, 2011
Gardiner shows transfer of toxin genes between fungal genera & new diseases: 3 examples: wheat yellow spot in 1930s, corn more recent #ibc18
Pathh1
July 28, 2011
I think that concludes the morning session, so next I’ll post the afternoon.


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